Document: AND-3-13-1

Land use change and the future of agriculture and biodiversity.

DOBSON, A.P.*

Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA ¹

Abstract:
Increases in the human population over the next fifty years will present a major challenge to agriculture. Both agricultural intensification and the conversion of natural lands into agricultural lands will be required to achieve the necessary increases in agricultural productivity. Both of these processes will have a detrimental impact on biodiversity. In this talk I will describe some simple models that examine the relationship between human population density, agricultural land, wildlands and biodiversity. These will be used to examine long term data and future trends for rates of habitat conversion in North and South America, Europe, Africa and the Far East. A key result to emerge from these analysis is that most of the best available agricultural land has already been colonized. As the future expansion of agriculture will occur on less productive lands a larger area will be needed to meet the demands of a larger human population. I will conclude by examining the possible impact of the current epidemic of HIV/AIDS on the future demand for agricultural land.

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This abstract is being presented at: 10:15 AM in session:
Symposium # 14: Ecology and Agriculture.