Document: AND-3-17-3

Biodiversity, climate, and land use: Current knowledge and future prospects.

HANSEN, A.J.* ¹, V.DALE ², R.NEILSON ³, L.IVERSON ⁴, D.CURRIE ⁵, S.SHAFER ⁶ and P.BARTLEIN ⁶

Biology Department, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT USA 59717 ¹
Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 ²
USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Corvallis, OR 97331 ³
USDA Forest Service Northeastern Research Station, Delaware, OH 43015 ⁴
Biology Department, University of Ottawa, Ontario K1N 6N5, Canada ⁵
Department of Geography, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR 97403 ⁶

Abstract:
The Forest Sector of the National Assessment on Climate Change and Variability synthesized knowledge on interactions among biodiversity, climate change, and land use. New analyses of the responses of species, communities, and biomes to human-induced climate change were also performed. Results for the conterminous U.S. suggest: forest area could decrease slightly; potential habitat for some oak and pine communities could expand; potential habitat for alpine, subalpine, aspen, sagebrush, and maple-beech-birch communities could dramatically contract; and potential species richness could increase in northern regions for trees and vertebrates, but decrease in the south for birds and mammals. The extent to which these potential responses are realized will likely be influenced by disturbance, the dispersal abilities of organisms, and land use. Human land use will likely be an important determinant of the future area and distribution of semi-natural communities. Land use will likely interact with climate change by influencing species dispersal rates. Nonnative species are likely to disperse across anthropogenic landscapes faster than many native species. Thus, nonnatives are likely to be important components of newly-forming communities. Considerable uncertainty remains in current understanding of biodiversity responses to global change. Research is needed on likely future climate and land-use patterns, the tolerances of organisms to global change, organism dispersal, and feedbacks from biodiversity to land use and climate. Development of strategies for coping with global change requires considerable attention.

Keywords: biodiversity, global change, climate, land use

This abstract is being presented at: 11:15 AM in session:
Symposium # 20: Global Change in Forests: Interactions Among Biodiversity, Climate and Land Use.