Document: CRA-3-66-37

A solar-cycle model for holocene climates.

LOEHLE, C.*

National Council for Air and Stream Improvement of the Paper Industry, Naperville, IL 60540 USA 1

Abstract:
Based on historical data, cycles of solar activity and climate were used to create a solar cycle model for Holocene climates. The model was fit to long-term temperature data. The model gives a good fit to temperature data of the past 150 years, including the cooling of the 1950s and 1960s, as well as to solar cycle data of the past 250 years. The model accurately predicts the major features of temperature for the past 3,000 years, based on a comparison with sediment data from the Sargasso Sea, and data from Europe based on glacial histories, tree ring records, and lake level fluctuations. The model projects a continued warming of 0.1 deg. C by 2025, followed by a 200+ year cooling trend of about 1.0 deg. C. A fit against only recent (past 150 year) data yields a prediction that temperatures will rise by 0.91 deg. C by the year 2115.

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This abstract is being presented at: 1:00 PM in session:
Oral Session #66: Large Scale Climate Change.