Document: HOL-3-2-5

Do not forecast the future-Create it.

HOLLING, C.S.*

Department of Zoology, University of Florida, Gainesville ¹

Abstract:
There has been a cascade of transformational change in the last two decades. A number of previously independent ecological, economic and political events at different scales seem all to be simultaneously in the back loop of adaptive change, where both crisis and opportunity wait. Simultaneously, a remarkable amount of appropriate understanding has accumulated that can shape the future. That understanding comes from advances in integrative theory, adaptive management experience, and public understanding. Thus the window for constructive change has opened at several scales. That requires actions to: 1) Identify and reduce destructive inhibitions that smother novelty; 2) Protect and preserve the accumulated experience on which change will be based; 3) Stimulate innovation in a variety of safe-fail experiments that probe possible directions; 4) Encourage new foundations for renewal that build and sustain the capacity of people, economies and nature for dealing with change; 5) Encourage new foundations to consolidate and expand understanding of change. No one knows the precise shape of what is needed, but here are three questions to begin: 1) How do we create worlds that are sustainable? Example: Sustainable Livelihood experiments in regions. Theory: Evolution and self-organization. 2) What are safe-fail experiments to link science, people and information? Example: Internet and web designs to create knowledge and learning. Theory: Adaptive Management and Design. 3) How can we engage the democratic political process? Example: projects for Citizen Scientists and Scientist Citizens. Theory: Political Economy, History and Philosophy!.

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This abstract is being presented at: 11:35 AM in session:
Symposium # 7: Thirty Questions for Ecology in the 21st Century.