Document: VIR-3-17-7

Assessing global change effects on North American forests.

DALE, V.* 1, L.JOYCE 2, J.ABER 3, AHANSEN 4, L.IRLAND 5, S.MCNULTY 6, R.NEILSON 7 and K.SKOG 8

Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA 1
USDA Forest Service, Fort Collins, CO 80523 USA. 2
University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH 03824 USA. 3
Montana StateUniversity, Bozeman, MT 59717 USA. 4
The Irland Group, Wintrhop ME 04364 USA. 5
USDA Forest Service, Raleigh, NC 27606 USA. 6
USDA Forest Service, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA. 7
USDA Forest Service, Madison, WI 53706 USA. 8

Abstract:
Global changes in climate, land use, and biodiversity interact to impact forests of North America. The current stresses of land use on biodiversity set the stage for the potential impacts of future climate change. This symposium is a product of the biodiversity committee of the Forest Sector of the National Assessment on Climate Change and Variability and focuses on climate change and biodiversity in forests. Talks in this symposium will present new assessments on the responses of species, communities, and biomes to projected climate change. This introductory presentation summarizes the main findings of Forest Sector and examines key questions on biodiversity and climate change. The Forest Sector analyses focused on the climate change impacts to forest processes, disturbances, biodiversity, and socio-economic conditions. The potential climate change effects on forests include: 1) an increase in productivity associated with an increase in the fertilizing effect of atmospheric carbon dioxide (but tempered by local environmental conditions, human land-use impacts, and potential changes in disturbance regimes); 2) an increase in the incidence of drought in the southern US which will lower forest productivity and possibly change the vegetation type from a closed forest to a savanna-forest-grassland type; 3) an increase in the seasonal severity of fire hazard by 10% across the US; 4) increasing frequency and intensity of climate-related disturbances, such as insect and disease outbreaks; and 5)changes in biodiversity of forests.

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This abstract is being presented at: 8:00 AM in session:
Symposium # 20: Global Change in Forests: Interactions Among Biodiversity, Climate and Land Use.