Document: WIL-3-2-8

Pressing questions for ecosystem science to 2100 A.D.

SCHLESINGER, W.H.*

Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 USA ¹

Abstract:
With demographic momentum destined to carry the Earth's human population beyond 10 billion individuals, and with the recognition that each individual is likely to place self-interest ahead of nature in the face of life's critical decisions, we must be realistic about how much "nature" will remain at the end of the 21st century. I predict that "natural" ecosystems, as we have traditionally recognized them, will be very rare-equivalent to the great works of art that hang in the world's museums. The Earth's surface, both land and sea, will be dominated by human activities, and ecosystem science must focus on the critical questions facing human-dominated ecosystems-in both urban and agricultural areas. Can humans and human society persist in the absence of nature's services and with only a small fraction of the Earth's current biodiversity? Will we be able to feed our population? Can we manage the effluents and wastes from our society? Will we succumb to pandemic diseases as a result of high density of our numbers and frequent contact between our subpopulations? How will we survive the effects of nuclear radiation emitted as our rising population density leads to crowding and conflict? We must meld the expertise of ecosystem science and environmental engineering to ensure an optimistic future for humans in the impoverished biosphere that they will dominate before this century's end.

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This abstract is being presented at: 10:10 AM in session:
Symposium # 7: Thirty Questions for Ecology in the 21st Century.