PARENT SESSION
Symposium #20: Extreme event analysis in ecology.
Sponsored by ESA Statistical Ecology and Long Term Studies Sections
Organized by: B. Li and R. G. Balice.
Thursday, August 9, 2001. 8:00 AM to 12:10 PM. Madison Ballroom A

Ecological risk assessment and extreme events analysis: applications to wildfire management.

Balice, Randy¹, ¹

ABSTRACT- The statistical analyses of extreme events have numerous applications in ecological risk assessment. The first step in the mitigation of significant impacts is to identify observations that do not conform to patterns established by other observations. Given these results, it is important to ascertain if these extreme values reflect errors in data handling, natural anomalies, or have practical importance to the manager. This approach can be generalized to many ecological disciplines. We will briefly discuss the relationships of these concepts to a practical example: wildfire. Wildfires in the Southwest have been occurring with increasing frequency and intensity during recent decades. In the process, many acres of forested lands, including homes and structures, have been burned. Carefully designed investigations and statistical analyses of extreme events can help us to determine if these wildfires are within the range of naturally occurring ecological processes or if they are unprecedented events with deleterious effects.

KEY WORDS: Ecological risk assessment, Wildfire