PARENT SESSION
Oral Session #21: Conservation of Biodiversity: Human landscapes, reserve design. Presiding: C. Meine.
Tuesday, August 7, 2001. 8:00 AM to 12:00 PM. Madison Ballroom D.
Human population density, deforestation and protected areas management: A multi-scale analysis of Central America.
MEYERSON, FREDERICK1, 1
ABSTRACT- One challenge facing conservation in developing countries is the identification of indicators to assess both the management of biological reserves and the efficacy of sustainable development. The hypothesis of this study is that human population density may be a useful index for determining how much forest cover will be sustained at multiple scales relevant to conservation. The research was conducted in the Maya Biosphere Reserve, a 21,000 km2 protected area in northern Guatemala and at related scales. Population and forest cover data were analyzed at multiple spatial scales (e.g., Central America, Guatemala, the Petén, the Maya Biosphere Reserve, its sub-component reserve zones and communities) and temporal scales (1940-1997). For the data sets considered, there is a significant inverse relationship between population density and remaining forest cover. There are several thresholds relevant to all scales, as well as some important variations. In particular, the forest loss curve is steeper for the Petén, Maya Biosphere Reserve, and its sub-components, where a density of 10 persons/km2 correlates with a 50% loss of forest cover. For data sets that include a wide range of population densities, the curve flattens out substantially once forest cover reaches low levels. This analysis suggests that it may be wise to re-consider the current design and management of the Maya Biosphere Reserve, as well as the current population programs in Guatemala, particularly in terms of their relation to conservation goals.
KEY WORDS: human population density, deforestation, protected areas, Guatemala