PARENT SESSION
Session #9: Ecological forecasting - Ecosystem management based on predictive science. Organized by: J. E. Fauth and D. Scavia.
Tuesday, August 7, 2001. Madison Ballroom B
Ecological forecasting: An organizing theme for ecological sciences.
SCAVIA, DONALD 1, CLUTTER, MARY 2, CRAWFORD, MAURICE1, 1 2
ABSTRACT- Wildfires, droughts, El Ninos and other environmental changes can affect our social and economic welfare. To understand the causes and consequences of this change, and ways to cope with it, we need better predictive capabilities for forecasting their impacts on ecosystems. This challenges is to provide information not only on the effects of individual stresses, but to learn how multiple causes will interact to influence the ecosystem. The interagency Committee on Environment and Natural Resources Ecological Subcommittee has been working to frame a new initiative to build, improve, and apply ecological forecasts in response to this need. Fortunately, as the President's Committee of Advisors on Science and Technology said: "New technology can provide us with the tools of discovery and techniques of analysis that will catapult us into position to meet the challenges of the 21st century... Our society is blessed with a dazzling array of new tools, from gene sequencers to global satellites. These tools can enable us to explore environmental questions at several different scales simultaneously, from sub-cellular to global." Ecological forecasting will be central to tackling the changes caused by the 5 key categories of ecosystem stress: climate change, extreme events, pollution, land and resource use, and invasive species. Enhanced ecological forecasting will aid resource managers, policymakers and the public in making informed decisions to efficiently manage, conserve and restore ecosystem services. This report describes the areas of focus, the justification, the salient research needs and promises of ecological forecasting. Developing the full range of science information needed for wise adaptive management of natural resources will require targeted investments and agency collaboration over the coming years.
KEY WORDS: Forecasting, CENR, Prediction, Ecosystems