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130 Theory and reality of lightning fire policy in the Kruger National Park. FUNDA, XOLANI*,1, BIGGS, HARRY1, WOODS, DAVID1, 1 South African National Parks, Skukuza, 1350, South Africa ABSTRACT- This poster presents results of the so-called "lightning-driven" or "natural" fire policy implemented in the Kruger National Park, South Africa, from 1992 to 2002. An analysis of fire count, distribution, size, season, cause, and return period is summarized and compared to an earlier analysis of more than 40 preceding years of rotational block burning. Because the "natural" fire policy failed to achieve the anticipated lightning-driven fire system, a model of what the managers actually intended was built. Additional area that would have burnt if lightning fires were not abutted by unplanned anthropogenic fires was carried out (using sizes of unconstrained lightning fire as a guideline). Lightning would also have caused some fires in areas previously burnt by anthropogenic fires, since lightning occurs later in the fire season. These extra areas were estimated by applying the same pattern and extent of fires that occur due to lightning elsewhere. Important assumptions or limitations in this version of the lightning-only system are that: the road network is not considered (roads sometimes act as firebreaks); lightning causes similar burn patterns everywhere in the Park; and no compensation is made for lightning fires coming into the park from outside as would have happened before land use change in these areas. The implications of this intended "ideal" pattern for fire management are discussed. KEY WORDS: Fire pattern, Model, Natural, Conservation management |