PARENT SESSION
Poster Session #44: Remote Sensing and GIS.
Wednesday, August 7. Presentation from 5:00 PM to 6:30 PM. Exhibit Hall B & C, TCC

A practical model of the spread of sudden oak death's disease-causing agent.

PULESTON, CEDRIC^*,1, ¹ San Francisco State University, San Francisco, CA

ABSTRACT- Sudden oak death is a poorly understood disease that threatens both the ecology and economy of California. This geographic information system-based cellular automata model employs a simple function based on the likelihood of transmission of the disease-causing agent, Phytophthora ramorum, to predict patterns of spread at large scales. The model works on a detailed map of California vegetative cover, allowing the user to plot the spread through any number and combination of host species. While many of the factors that control the pattern of spread are still being studied, we can use this highly flexible model to examine the likelihood of potential outcomes. The model can also be used to quantitatively test theories regarding mode of spread by comparing multiple runs of the model under theoretical assumptions against the empirical pattern. The central function allows the user to control the probability of Phytophthora ramorum traveling from cell to cell and can be adjusted to reflect different transmission rates in different hosts. Additional modules can be employed to allow the model to simulate low-probability long-distance transmission events, as well as the effects of temperature, humidity, topography and host density on transmission.

KEY WORDS: GIS, landscape ecology, epidemiology, SOD