PARENT SESSION
Oral Session #16: Landscape Ecology: Fragmentation, ecotones, and models.
Presiding: X. Wu
Monday, August 5. 1:00 PM to 3:45 PM. Gila Meeting Room, TCC.

Next-generation spatial modeling for ecological forecasting.

Schnase, J.^*,3, Stohlgren, T.^1,2, Reich, R.², Kalkhan, M.², Smith, J.³, ³ NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD¹ Midcontinent Ecological Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins, CO² Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

ABSTRACT- Ecologists require new approaches in field sampling, "scaleable" multivariate models, advanced algorithms, higher resolution remotely sensed imagery, and advanced computing capabilities for predictive models of rapid changes in species distributions and environmental change. We provide examples of recent progress in landscape-scale studies that begin to address some of these issues. Examples include maps of invasive species following wildfire in New Mexico, wildland fuels in the Black Hills of South Dakota, hotspots of native plant diversity in the Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monument in Utah, and goshawk nest locations in Kaibab National Forest in Arizona. We then discuss the rapid changes in field sampling, remote sensing, and spatial modeling that will be necessary to greatly advance the science of ecological forecasting.

KEY WORDS: field sampling, landscape-scale studies, spatial modeling, ecological forecasting