PARENT SESSION
Symposium #9: Uncertainty and information in ecological forecasting.

Organized by: JS Clark and C Brewer
Tuesday, August 6. 8:00 AM to 11:30 AM. Crystal Ballroom, TCC.

Dynamics and control of the 2001 UK Foot-and-Mouth epidemic.

Keeling, Matt^*,1, Grenfell, Bryan², ¹ University of Warwick, Coventry, West Midlands, United Kingdom² University of Cambridge, Cambridge, Cambridgeshire, United Kingdom

ABSTRACT- The recent outbreak of Foot-and-Mouth disease had a devastating impact on the farming community in the United Kingdom. For this very high-profile outbreak, modellers and epidemiologists were involved with scientific recomendations from the start. As such, this outbreak is highly unusual and was seen by many as a test of modelling in general. Uniquely for this disease, there exists large amount of information about the susceptible farms, and detailed spatio-temporal data for the reported cases. Here we consider the accuracy and robustness of the predictive models, and the importance of control measures. Although the implemented strategies were highly successful, the culling of at-risk herd proved very unpopular. We therefore consider a range of other measures (including vaccination) which could be used to combat any future epidemic.

KEY WORDS: Foot and Mouth Disease, Stochastic Spatial Models, Disease Control, Heterogeneities