PARENT SESSION
Poster Session #66: Landscape Ecology II.
Friday, August 9. Presentation from 8:00 AM to 9:30 AM. Exhibit Hall B & C, TCC
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Quantifying spatial and temporal dynamics in wildlife habitat suitability under a natural fire regime in southwestern Colorado.
CRIST, MICHELE*,1,2, MCGARIGAL, KEVIN2, ROMME, WILLIAM3, ROWORTH, EDWIN2, 1 The Wilderness Society, Boise, ID2 University of Massachusetts-Amherst, Amherst, MA3 Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO
ABSTRACT- Ecosystems and landscapes in southwestern Colorado constantly change due to disturbance and sucession processes. These changes exert a strong influence on wildlife population and distribution and species diversity. Quantifying relationships between ecological processes and landscape patterns will give land managers insight on how wildlife species respond to landscape changes under various disturbance regimes. For this study, we developed a stochastic disturbance-succession landscape simulation model, and spatially-explicit habitat suitability models for four species: pine marten (Martes americana), elk (Cervus elaphus nelsonii), three-toed woodpecker (Picoides tridactylus), and olive-sided flycatcher (Contopus borealis). Using these models, we simulated changes in landscape structure resulting from natural fires and succession processes and determined habitat conditions at 30-year intervals over a 600-year period for a 228,500 ha mountainous area located in the San Juan National Forest, CO. We quantified the amount and configuration of each species' suitable habitat using several landscape metrics and explored the independent and combined effects of habitat area and configuration on habitat dynamics. Based on these results, we described a range of natural variation in habitat area and configuration for each species. Our results demonstrated that, for each species, habitat was dynamic over time and exhibited a shifting mosaic. However, each species RNV was modest and occurred within a narrowly-bounded equilibrium state at the scale of the study area. Also, the same landscape changes resulted in significant differences in habitat dynamics among species. Habitat dynamics for generalist species were more variable over time than for habitat specialists. Lastly, the temporal stability of habitat patches was variable across the landscape depending on the position a habitat patch occupied on the landscape, fire behavior, and species habitat associations. However, despite habitat dynamics, there was a small percentage of habitat that remained relatively stable over time. These results can be used as a frame of reference for identifying management practices that cause deviations from these species' natural operating ranges.
KEY WORDS: conservation, fire, habitat dynamics, spatial modeling