PARENT SESSION
Oral Session # 70: Landscape Ecology.
Presiding: S Hannon
Thursday, August 7. 8:00 AM to 11:30 AM, SITCC Meeting Room 201.
Modeling the Effects of Land Use and Climate Change on Water Yield in a Costal Watershed of North Carolina.
Qi, Shi1, Sun, Ge2, McNulty, Steve2, Moore, Jennifer2, 1 Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, Beijing, P.R.China2 SGCP, USDA Forest Service, Raleigh, NC
ABSTRACT- Continued population increases will place increased demands on forests to supply water for commercial and residential use. In addition to increases population demands, land use and climate change will alter the availability of water resources. We used a landuse and climate–sensitive hydrological model called PRMS to study the potential change in water yield across a large coastal plain watershed (Trent River) in North Carolina. The model was first calibrated and then validated using historical long-term hydrologic data collected within the watershed. We examined the sensitivity of streamflow to elevated air temperature and variable precipitation patterns. The results show that the water yield decreases with the increases in air temperature and decreases in precipitation. We then compared predicted water yield using historic land use and several land use change scenarios. Compared to climate change, landuse change may have more pronounced effects on water yield. When forest cover changes into agriculture land or urban use, both total water yield and peakflow rates increase. The results and implications of this research for regional water planning will be presented.
Key words: land use change, hydrological model, climate change, coastal plain watershed