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Predicting range shifts in response to climate change: studying a butterfly using convolution integrals.
Crozier, Lisa1, 1 University of Chicago, Chicago, IL
ABSTRACT- Climate change is already causing a majority of species to shift their geographic ranges in expected directions. However, our ability to predict the timescale of individual responses is limited by a widespread assumption that environmental conditions at the range edge should remain constant. Experimental work on Atalopedes campestris, the sachem skipper butterfly, suggests that either summer or winter temperature can limit the northern edge of the range. I here describe a model that demonstrates how the rate at which it responds to climate change will depend on the rate of warming in different seasons. This approach reveals some of the complexities inherent in environmental constraints and the importance of considering flexible population dynamics within the broader context of climate change.
Key words: range shifts, modeling, climate change, population dynamics