PARENT SESSION
Contributed Oral Session 19: Modeling: Movement and Population Dynamics
Monday, August 8, 1:30 PM - 5:00 PM, Meeting Room 513 A, Level 5, Palais des congrès de Montréal
High precision surface modeling: A solution for multiple-scale problems.
Yue, Tian Xiang*,1, 1 Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, Beijing
ABSTRACT- Multiple-scale issues are critically important in any study that uses models or data developed at one particular scale for condition assessment or scenarios analysis at other scales of interest. In order to find a solution for transformation and fusion of information at different scales, a method of High Precision Surface Modelling (HPSM) is developed on the basis of the fundamental theorem of surfaces. Numerical tests show that both grid spacing and distance between sampling points have a little impact on HPSM precision, which means that HPSM is the solution for transformation and fusion of the multiple-scale information theoretically. As case-studies of HPSM applications, trends in the 20th century and scenarios in the 21st century of spatial pattern of terrestrial ecosystems, human carrying capacity of major terrestrial ecosystems, and spatial distribution of human population in China are simulated. The simulation gives many interesting results. For instance, nival area is decreasing and would continuously decrease in future with climate change in China; the nival areas might disappear within 552 years in terms of HadCM2d1 and within 204 years in terms of HadCM3A1FI. Climate change would improve human carrying capacity of the major terrestrial ecosystems in the western region of China in the 21st century. If population could freely migrate within the whole China, the balanced ratios of population in the western region, the middle region and the eastern region to total population in the whole China would be 16%, 33% and 52% respectively.
Key words: High precision surface modeling, multiple-scale issue, solution, ecosystem