PARENT SESSION
Special Session 13: Millenium Ecosysyem Assessment Part II: Frontiers in multi-scale assessments of ecosystem services
Organized by: SR Carpenter and W Reid
Thursday, August 11, 1:30 PM - 5:00 PM, Exhibit Hall 210a-e, Level 2, Palais des congrès de Montréal

Gaps in applying ecology to scenarios: The frontiers of ecosystem science.

Carpenter, Stephen^*,1, ¹ Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA

ABSTRACT- Scenarios of future ecosystem services place unprecedented demands on ecology. Our science is well prepared to contribute in some areas (e.g. modeling food, forest products, water quality and quantity, and some aspects of biodiversity, and a few other ecosystem services). However, gaps are vast, in both tools and understanding. The talk will stress three research priorities which can and should be addressed within a few years. (1) Targets for positive change: Environmental policies are canalized by the set of future targets available to decision makers. These targets follow from various models, formal or informal, of change in ecosystems and society. The set of options for sustainable transformation of ecosystem services and associated management practices must be diversified. (2) Actively adaptive ecosystem management: Experimentation with monitoring and analysis to learn more sustainable management methods can greatly improve future ecosystem services and human well-being. The practice of active adaptive management needs to be expanded, along with theory and models for understanding processes of change in policy for ecosystem services. (3) Regulating and cultural ecosystem services: Regulating ecosystem services (such as effects of ecosystems on water supply or quality) underlie the resilience of provisioning ecosystem services (such as food or freshwater). Slow degradation of regulating ecosystem services often leads to costly or irreversible losses in provisioning ecosystem services. Cultural ecosystem services (such as esthetic or spiritual values) underlie the attitudes and behaviors of people toward nature. These are crucial in managing ecosystems. Models and management practices that address regulating and cultural ecosystem services must be improved and integrated with existing tools that stress provisioning ecosystem services.

Key words: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, Scenarios, Ecosystem model, Ecosystem services