PARENT SESSION
Poster Session 17: Modelling
Wednesday, August 10, 5:00 PM - 6:30 PM, Exhibit Hall 220 A-E, Level 2, Palais des congrès de Montréal
A simulation of carbon variation at landscape level for northeast Ontario, Canada.
Zhou, Xiaolu*,1, 2, Peng, Changhui1, Dang, Qing-Lai2, Hua, Dong1, 2, Sun, Jianfeng1, 1 University of Quebec at Montreal, Montreal, QC, Canada2 Lakehead University, Thunder Bay, NO, Canada
ABSTRACT- We performed a simulation of temporal and spatial carbon variations using TRIPLEX1.0 model at landscape level as a case study of the Lake Abitibi Model Forest (LAMF) (1.2 million ha) in northeast Ontario, Canada. The TRIPLEX1.0 model is a process-based ecological model for simulating carbon dynamics and growth and yield in Canada's boreal forest ecosystems. In this study, forest ecosystems were simulated not only for ecosystem carbon dynamics but also for forest growth and yield situations in order to investigate the dynamics of forest growth and the relationship between allowable cut and carbon balance, which depends on annual changes in temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture and nitrogen. The model outputs provide 50 variables including each component of biomass (stem, foliage, coarse and fine root), soil carbon (slow and passive pool), and growth and yield (tree density, height, DBH, and volume) etc. The forest growth variables were calculated by converting from stem biomass, which influences tree growth with physiological responses to environmental factors. The model was tested practically using field data of growth and yield. Model testing shows that simulated tree height and DBH are in good agreement with measurements for black spruce, jack pine, and trembling aspen. Coefficients of determination (r2) range from 0.73 to 0.89 for tree height and from 0.72 to 0.85 for DBH. Comparisons also show that biases range from -18.35% to 6.79% for tree height, and -7.27% to 17.88% for DBH. More than 40,000 stands are simulated from 1990 to 2000. The input and output of these stand polygons were processed using GIS to integrate different spatial attributes. The analysis of net carbon balance of ecosystem suggested that the LAMF forest ecosystem was acting as a carbon sink with an allowable harvest, which was estimated as about 30% of the annual volume increment in the LAMF.
Key words: Ecological modelling, Ecosystem simulation, Growth and Yield, Carbon balance