PARENT SESSION
Contributed Oral Session 30: Statistics
Monday, August 8, 1:30 PM - 5:00 PM, Meeting Room 520 B, Level 5, Palais des congrès de Montréal

Time series estimation of biomineralized tissue from the Bowhead Whale.

Wilson, Machelle ¹, Romanek, Christopher ¹, Shao, Qin², ¹ Savannah River Ecology Laboratory, Aiken, SC, USA² University of Toledo, Toledo, OH, USA

ABSTRACT- The statistical techniques of stationary time series were employed to rigorously characterize observed trends in elemental concentrations and stable isotope ratios in the baleen of two individual bowhead whales from different populations in the arctic. Various autoregressive moving average models were fitted to the observed data, where parameter estimation was accomplished via maximum likelihood methods. The mean structure of spatial trends were evaluated including linear trends through time and estimates of period length (cm) and cycle amplitude along the baleen transect. Although the data were collected in a spatial domain, inference along any longitudinal scale is susceptible to time series methodology as the time series application is not restricted to time. We also developed and employed a new techique to estimate the offset between cycles from the different series. The analysis shows that the records held in the baleen provide information about historical contaminant levels, food source, and migration patterns of the arctic whales.

Key words: time series, bowhead whale, stable isotope ratios, trace element concentrations