Dynamics of Interference, Cross-Immunity and Seasonality in a Two-Disease Epidemic Model.
Vasco, Daniel*,1, Wearing, Helen*,1, Rohani, Pejman*,1, 1 Institute of Ecology, Athens, GA, USA
ABSTRACT- Recent work on the population dynamics of childhood diseases has lead to the proposal that 'ecological interference' can be a principal determinant mediating interactions between fatal pathogens. The concept of ecological interference is based upon the temporary (or permanent) removal of individuals from the susceptible population following infection with another pathogen. In this talk, we present a general model for a multiple pathogen-single host system, incorporating possible immunological interactions, competition and seasonality. We present results concerning its stability properties and then proceed to use continuation methods to explore the bifurcation structure of the forced model. We find, that the observed patterns in measles and whooping cough data are consistent with interference dynamics arising from convalescence and infection-induced mortality. Future application of this generalized framework will allow researchers to understand the role of these processes in other infectious diseases such as dengue and echoviruses.
Key words: interference, cross-immunity, disease, dynamics
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