PARENT SESSION
Contributed Oral Session 20: Modeling Animal Populations
Monday, August 8, 1:30 PM - 5:00 PM, Meeting Room 513 C, Level 5, Palais des congrès de Montréal
Demography of fluctuating populations: Insights from a long-term study.
Hrycyshyn, Gabrielle*,1, Getz, Lowell2, Oli, Madan1, 1 University of Florida, Gainesville, FL2 University of Illinois, Urbana, IL
ABSTRACT- Vole and other microtine rodent populations exhibit large scale fluctuations in abundance, but demographic and environmental causes of large scale population fluctuations remain unknown. We used 25 years of mark-recapture data and capture-mark-recapture (CMR) modeling framework to investigate the demographic and environmental correlates of fluctuations in prairie vole (Microtus ochrogaster) populations in Illinois. Overall and stage-specific apparent survival probabilities and maturation rates were estimated using Cormack-Jolly-Seber and multi-state CMR models. Survival and maturation rates were often strongly influenced by seasonal variation. This is unexpected given that many vole population dynamics are driven by population density phases, which were also tested in these models. The implications of these findings to the understanding of prairie vole population dynamics and regulation will be discussed.
Key words: population demography, capture-mark-recapture analysis, prairie voles, modeling