PARENT SESSION
Contributed Oral Session 100: Modeling: Forest Systems
Wednesday, August 10, 1:30 PM - 5:00 PM, Meeting Room 519 B, Level 5, Palais des congrès de Montréal

A test of the inverse modeling approach using molecular markers.

Calogeropoulos, Catherine^{*,1, 2}, Greene, David^{*,1, 2}, Dayanandan, Selvadurai^{*,1, 2}, ¹ Concordia University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada² Groupe de Recherche en Ecologie Forestiere interuniversitaire, Montreal, Quebec, Canada

ABSTRACT- Arguably, the most important role of dispersal ecology is predicting the potential for plant migration. Indeed, the quality of conservation programs for plant species in fragmented landscapes relies heavily on our ability to predict long distance dispersal. The current method used to describe seed dispersal from within closed-canopy forests is inverse modeling. But despite its widespread use, a critical assessment of its predictive ability has not been investigated. In this work, we used microsatellite markers to determine the maternal origin of seeds (Pinus strobus) collected from an array of seed traps within a mixed temperate forest. We then evaluated the inverse approach by comparing the observed vs. predicted dispersal curves. Our results show that our present modeling efforts largely underestimate the dispersal potential of plant populations from within intact forests. To accurately model plant dynamics, the results from this work suggest that we must reevaluate the inverse modeling approach.

Key words: seed dispersal, microsatellite markers, inverse modeling, Pinus strobus