PARENT SESSION
Contributed Oral Session 131: Biogeography: Ranges; Species Area; Populations
Thursday, August 11, 1:30 PM - 5:00 PM, Meeting Room 515 A, Level 5, Palais des congrès de Montréal
Shifting climates, shifting ranges: Continental differences in faunal responses to climate change.
Lawler, Joshua*,1, Shafer, Sarah 2, White, Denis3, Neilson, Ronald4, Blaustein, Andrew 1, 1 Department of Zoology, Corvallis, OR, USA2 US Geological Survey, Corvallis, OR, USA3 4
ABSTRACT- Changes in the earth's climate are predicted to result in shifts in the geographic ranges of many plant and animal species. Understanding the nature of these range shifts is critical for managing natural resources and conservation planning. Climate-induced range shifts will be influenced by biogeographical factors such as initial range sizes and local, regional, and continental land-forms. We investigated the patterns of potential geographic range shifts for birds, mammals, and amphibians across the western hemisphere. We used climate-envelope models to predict future distributions of species as a function of predicted future climate and land-cover. We then quantified predicted range expansions and contractions under different climate-change and dispersal scenarios across North and South America. As one would expect, species at the highest latitudes were generally predicted to experience range contractions. In addition, we found differences between predicted levels of expansion and contraction in the northern temperate, tropical, and southern temperate zones. On average, species in temperate North America were predicted to experience more modest range contractions and larger range expansions than species in temperate South America. Because the effects of climate change on species distributions will vary geographically, protecting biodiversity in a changing climate will require conservation planning at continental, as well as local and regional scales.
Key words: biogeography, climate change, geographic range, prediction