PARENT SESSION
Contributed Oral Session 1: Landscape History
Monday, August 8, 8:00 AM - 11:30 AM, Meeting Room 513 A, Level 5, Palais des congrès de Montréal
The implications of forest fires in an anthropogenically warmed and harvested boreal forest in Northwest Ontario, Canada.
Suffling, Roger*,1, Munoz-Marquez, Rafael1, Perera, Ajith2, Zhao, Junlin2, 1 University of Waterloo, Waterloo, On, Canada2 Ontario Forest Research Institute, Sault Ste. Marie, On, Canada
ABSTRACT- Anthropogenic climate change in continental boreal forests will be mediated by increased stand-replacing fires that reduce industrial timber availability. The 7820Km2 Dog-River Matawin Forest in northwestern Ontario is the focus of this study. Using three General Circulation Model scenarios ((CCSRNIES A21, CGCM2 A22 and current climate 1961-1990), we projected change in forest stand age distributions and forest cover types over 60 years. We estimated harvest demand from industry projections, and developed ARCVIEW algorithms to spatially simulate harvesting and post-logging regeneration. Fire dynamics were modeled using the BFOLDS landscape simulator, which was repeatedly halted to facilitate harvests. Although modeling predicted timber shortages even under baseline conditions, with shortages emerging as early as 2035, warmed climates induced supply crises a decade before the current climate scenario. All scenarios produced a younger forest under harvesting, with implications for old-growth species. Softwood should increase in dominance relative to hardwood in all scenarios, but stand dominants do not vary greatly between scenarios. These projected timber deficits have severe economic, social and political implications that potentially threaten neighbouring protected areas.
Key words: Fire, Global change, Boreal forest, Harvest