PARENT SESSION
Wednesday, August 9, 1:30-5:00 pm
COS 73 - Ecological modeling III
L-11, Lobby Level, Cook Convention Center
Presiders: M Kenney and S Hoeppner
Optimizing invasive species management: a stochastic dynamic programming approach for the North American gypsy moth.
Bogich, Tiffany*,1, Shea, Katriona1, Liebhold, Andrew2, 1 The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, tlb927@psu.edu2 USDA Forest Service Northeastern Research Station, Morgantown, WV
ABSTRACT- Biological invasions by pest species pose a threat to the stability of ecosystems, both natural and managed. Considerable effort is currently expended on the detection and eradication of invasive species, but this work is not necessarily conducted in the most economically or biologically efficient manner. We used optimization methods to determine the most efficient management strategy to minimize the invasion of one of the most devastating forest pests, the European strain of the gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar. Gypsy moth caterpillars are responsible for changing entire ecosystems because of their wide–ranging diet; their polyphagous feeding leads to severe defoliation, leaving forests vulnerable to disease. The optimization approach involves the application of Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) to a metapopulation framework with the goal of minimizing infested area. The management decisions involve deciding how to best allocate pesticide application amongst known infestations of different sizes to minimize the number of patches that are occupied by gypsy moth colonies in a finite area within a specified time frame. The model is useful in determining management strategies specific to the state of the region being managed. Preliminary results indicate that the management time horizon is a significant factor in determining the optimal decision. The application of this model to gypsy moth management has the potential to substantially improve the efficiency and cost–effectiveness of current gypsy moth eradication programs, helping to slow the spread of this pest. Additionally, the approach used for this particular invasive species can be extended to the optimization of management programs for other invasive forest pests.
Key words: stochastic modeling, biological invasions, lymantria dispar