PARENT SESSION
Tuesday, August 8, 1:30-5:00 pm
OOS 5 - Climate change and timing in ecological communities
Ballroom C, Ballroom Level, Cook Convention Center
Organized by: AJ Miller-Rushing (ajmr@bu.edu), RB Primack, and DW Inouye
This session will present research designed to document, evaluate, and predict how phenological changes caused by climate change will impact biological communities.
Projections of climate change driven shifts in temperate trees' budbreak and leaf expansion dates.
Salk, Carl*,1, Augspurger, Carol2, Clark, James1, 3, 1 Duke University, Durham, NC2 University of Illinois, Urbana, IL3 Duke University, Durham, NC
ABSTRACT- Global warming has the potential to hasten bud break and leaf expansion in temperate trees species with consequences at the community and ecosystem level. We investigated whether such changes will have varying effects among species on growing season length. We examined community level consequences of phenological shifts induced by global warming by developing predictive models of bud break and leaf expansion for 11 canopy tree species. These models were based on a 13 year phenological record of tagged trees in Champaign County, Illinois. We then used our models to generate predicted changes in dates of bud break and full leaf expansion under climate scenarios forecasted for the next century. The models were able to predict bud break and leaf expansion in years used in model building to within 1-5 days of the observed date depending on event and species. When tested on external data not used in model construction, the models predicted events to within 1-6 days. Under the most extreme warming scenarios, these models predicted an advance of full leaf expansion of 1-3 weeks, resulting in an increase in growing season length of between 5 and 10%, depending on species. These phenological shifts will likely alter carbon balance in trees. In addition, the range of responses among species may lead to phenologically driven changes in community composition. However, changes in fall phenology, and responses of photosynthesis and respiration to warmer temperatures could further complicate these predictions.
Key words: climate change, temperate forests, phenological modeling