Oral Session - Remote Sensing Chair(s): Slonecker, Terrence¹, Jarnagin, Taylor¹, ¹ US Environmental Protection Agency, Reston, VA
Thursday, April 1, 2004 8:00 AM - 11:40 AM Apollo Room 3-4

Landscape changes in arid Central Asia inferred from NDVI series observed from 1981 to 2001. Lioubimtseva, Elena^*,1, ¹ Geography and Planning Department, Allendale, MI, USA

ABSTRACT- Climate and ecological models predict that arid zones might undergo significant environmental changes as a result of ecosystem responses to global warming and growing concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Analyses of temporal and spatial variations of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from the NOAA meteorological satellites from 1981 to 2001 along with temperature and precipitation data from meteorological stations showed significant changes in landscape cover of Central Asia during the past two decades. There has been insignificant increase of NDVI in the KaraKum and Kyzyl Kum deserts and decrease in some other areas (vicinity of the Aral Sea). NDVI is a useful indicators of leaf area index and vegetation net primary production and therefore are tightly connected with meso-climatic characteristics. Variability of this index correlates with precipitation and temperature changes in this temperate desert region. However, great uncertainty exist if indeed most of the observed NDVI variability should be attributed to the regional biotic responses to the global climate change or they result from the regional-scale agricultural land-use and land-cover changes, such as expansion of irrigation and changes in the livestock population.

KEY WORDS: land-cover change, arid zones, climate change, carbon dioxide, NDVI