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(IP24) SETAC Pellston workshop on the application of uncertainty analysis to the ecological risks of pesticides: overview and conclusions.
Hart, Andy*,1, 1 Central Science Laboratory, York, UK
ABSTRACT- Probabilistic approaches use uncertainty analysis to quantify variability and uncertainty. There are many methods of uncertainty analysis, many ways of defining input distributions and presenting results. Inappropriate use of uncertainty analysis gives misleading results. We therefore need to identify which methods of uncertainty analysis are most appropriate and to adopt these as a common approach. To address this need, SETAC organised a workshop in February 2002 to identify appropriate methods of uncertainty analysis for probabilistic assessment of ecological risks, with a particular focus on pesticides. The objectives of the workshop were (1) to promote wider understanding of uncertainty analysis, especially in the pesticides arena, by providing an accessible review of the main approaches; (2) to provide guidance on how to select appropriate methods of uncertainty analysis, and how to use them; (3) to develop case studies to explore the application of alternative methods of uncertainty analysis to the ecological risks of pesticides; (4) to identify priorities for further development, implementation and training. The results will be published as a book by SETAC early in 2003, including chapters on problem formulation, Bayesian methods, selecting and parameterising input distributions, propagating uncertainty in non-hierarchical models, propagating uncertainty in hierarchical models, bounding techniques, how to detect and avoid misleading results, interpreting and using results in decision-making, and case studies. This presentation provides an overview of the workshop and summarises the main conclusions.
Key words: probabilistic, risk assessment, uncertainty analysis, pesticides
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