WP11 Risk Management
E145-146
1:20 PM - 4:40 PM, Wednesday
() Risk Management in a 2-D World.
Samuelian, J.1, Alsop, W.2, 1 AMEC Earth & Environmental, Portland, ME, USA2 AMEC Earth & Environmental, Westford, MA, USA
ABSTRACT- Risk management includes the integration of scientific issues, policy issues, economic issues and risk communication to resolve environmental problems. Examples for the latter include the determination of the appropriate disposition for a site with chemical contaminants, development of permit levels for facility emissions, balancing risks and benefits of chemical residues or pathogens in food, and many others. Typically, risk management decisions are based on deterministic single point estimates of risk. At best, uncertainty and variability in these estimates are addressed in a narrative fashion. Application of two-dimensional probabilistic modeling, which concurrently captures uncertainty and variability in the risk estimates, is one tool that can be used to provide additional information to assist risk managers in the decision-making process. Through the use of two hypothetical case studies, we will demonstrate the steps that could be taken to integrate 2-D modeling into the risk management process. The two cases to be discussed are (1) assessing the effects of chemical residues in soils to ecological receptors and (2) the assessment of potential human health risks associated with emissions from a combustion facility.
Key words: variability, probabilistic modeling, uncertainty, risk management