TA9 Ecological Risk Assessment and Landscape Ecological Modeling
D137-140
8:00 AM - 12:00 PM, Tuesday
() Assessment and Planning Approaches in Watershed Assessment: The Embayment Eutrophication Case Study.
Menzie, C1, Wickwire, W1, Famely, J1, Novak, A1, 1 Menzie-Cura & Associates, Inc., Winchester, MA, USA
ABSTRACT- With an increasing recognition that many environmental stressors, though localized in origin, are spatially expansive in terms of ecosystem impacts, ecological risk assessors are developing new methods and adapting commonly used methodologies to larger scales. In many cases the standard ecological risk assessment approach can be adapted and applied to larger scales and non-hazardous waste stressors. An ecological risk assessment organized around background research, framing the assessment through conceptual modeling and endpoint selection, estimating exposure, predicting effects and combining all of the pieces into the assessment of risk can not only be powerful for assessing risk, but is also a valuable planning and communication tool. Increasingly, assessments are scaled according to hydrological or ecological boundaries, rather than a strict adherence to political boundaries. Certain stressors are particularly amenable to assessment at larger scales. Embayment susceptibility to eutrophication is presented as a case study for the presentation of larger scale screening, communication and planning tools. Through the application of an accessible, yet powerful predictive modeling tool, the susceptibility of a number of Massachusetts embayments to eutrophication and nitrogen loading are determined. Land use data, hydrologic dynamic data and embayment characteristics are integrated through a geographic information system. In addition to presenting a watershed-scale assessment tool for the evaluation of current conditions, the paper demonstrates how risk assessment models may also be integrated with alternative futures analyses to predict future conditions, inform planning decisions and serve to communicate options, risks and final decisions to a wide audience.
Key words: watershed assessment, eutrophication, ecological risk assessment, alternative futures analysis