TA9 Ecological Risk Assessment and Landscape Ecological Modeling
D137-140
8:00 AM - 12:00 PM, Tuesday
() Integration of a Fortran95 Model with GIS Tools in Ecological Risk Assessments.
Gonzales, G.1, Ryti, R. 2, Newell, P.3, Gallegos, A.3, Bennett, K.1, 1 Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA2 Neptune and Company, Inc., Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA3 Environmental Health Associates, Inc., Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA
ABSTRACT- A Fortran95 model, ECORSK.7, and GIS software are being used at the Los Alamos National Laboratory to assess risk from environmental contaminants to animals across a 60 mi2 landscape. The model is employed at two stages- prior to the design of empirical studies to help focus the location of the studies and during tier-2 assessments as one of many lines of evidence used to support cleanup decisions. ARC/INFO- and Arcview-generated data are integrated with ECORSK.7 so that all model input and output data are spatially explicit. This includes contaminant concentrations, animal distribution data, calculated exposure rates, hazard quotients, and hazard indices. While the GIS systems and ECORSK.7 each operate within themselves, a subroutine called CONVRT integrates them. The model generates large volumes of output data over expansive land areas and this allows the development of hazard contours that are used to infer potential impacts on animal populations. Segregation of the expansive area into spatial units and coordination with the risk model allows a systematic approach to predicting the likelihood of undesired effects from radionuclides, metals, and organic chemicals. Maps are generated that communicate risk and animal distribution and with these two parameters relative exposure differences across LANL are also visualized.
Key words: risk, modeling, environmental contamination, contaminant exposures