PM08 Sediment Quality Assessment
Exhibit Hall
8:00 AM - Monday
(PM126) A Probabilistic Evaluation of Uncertainty and Variability in Fish Consumption Risks.
Kennedy, L1, Nedoff, J1, Williams, B2, 1 Kennedy/Jenks Consultants, San Francisco, CA, USA2 Kennedy/Jenks Consultants, Portland, OR, USA
ABSTRACT- Fish consumption is a human health exposure pathway frequently evaluated at sites located near or adjacent to water bodies and is often the exposure pathway that drives the overall human health risks at a site. Risk estimates based on fish consumption are dependent on several input parameters, including the fish ingestion rate, species of fish consumed, preparation methods, and source of fish consumed. Default fish ingestion rates have been recommended by U.S. EPA and others. However, numerous studies show that fish ingestion rates differ markedly throughout the country and for specific subpopulations, and default fish ingestion rates may not reflect actual fish consumption practices at a given site. In addition, the various studies that have been used to develop default fish ingestion rates show significant variability in those rates for a given population. Other input parameters used to estimate risks from fish consumption are also associated with both uncertainty and variability. Although point estimates for input parameters are typically used to quantify risks, the point estimate approach does not truly characterize the variability and uncertainty associated with the input parameters. When a high degree of variability or uncertainty exists, as in the case of fish consumption, a probabilistic analysis provides a better understanding of the potential range of risks than a simplistic point estimate approach. This presentation uses a probabilistic approach to examine the uncertainty and variability associated with the various input parameters used to estimate risk from fish consumption and the impact on the overall human health risks.
Key words: probabilistic risk assessment, fish consumption