WP11 Risk Management
E145-146
1:20 PM - 4:40 PM, Wednesday
() Integrating Risk Assessment, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis and Adaptive Management for Complex Environmental Decisions.
Kiker, G1, Linkov, I2, Bridges, T1, 1 U.S. Army Corps of Engineers - Engineer Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS, USA2 Cambridge Environmental Inc., Cambridge, MA, USA
ABSTRACT- Decision-making in environmental projects can be complex and seemingly intractable, principally due to the inherent existence of trade-offs between socio-political, environmental, ecological, and economic factors. The use of comparative risk assessments (along with the line/weight of evidence paradigm) has provided systematic tools for bringing risk-based information into decision-making processes. In addition, considerable research in the area of multi criteria decision analysis (MCDA) has made available practical methods and software tools for applying scientific decision theoretical approaches to complex, environmental problems. Concepts such as adaptive management allow decision-makers and stakeholders to methodically review data and assumptions to alter management strategies as subsequent information becomes available or as unforeseen surprises occur. Decision processes should have a systematic structure and a defendable transparency while being resilient to changes over time. They should be time-efficient and cost-effective while still having understandability and trustworthiness to stakeholders. This paper reviews MCDA and adaptive management processes along with their application in comparative risk assessments within U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) projects. Results of the review and test applications are used to formulate new methodologies for complex environmental decision-making.
Key words: Adaptive Management, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, Comparative Risk Assessment