R7 PM Uncertainty Analysis in Risk Assessment: Influences on Decision-making
Thursday, 17 November 2005: 1:50 PM - 5:30 PM in 327-329

(GID-1117-850289) Uncertainty Analysis in Pesticide Registration - Is It Working?

Giddings, Jeffrey¹, Warren-Hicks, William², ¹ Parametrix, Rochester, MA, USA² EcoStat, Inc., Mebane, NC, USA

ABSTRACT- Classical and Bayesian probabilistic techniques are being used in many countries as tools for uncertainty analysis in the ecological risk assessment of pesticides. Both the US EPA and the European Commission are developing guidance on the tiered use of probabilistic methods for pesticide risk assessment. But are these approaches working? Are probabilistic outputs contributing significantly to registration decisions? By what criteria can we judge the regulatory usefulness and scientific acceptability of probabilistic methods? We will explore these questions by examining recent successes and failures through interviews with regulators, pesticide registrants, and academic scientists. Case studies illustrating the use of probabilistic methods in pesticide registration will support the discussion.

Key words: Pesticides, Uncertainty, Probabilistic Risk Assessment