M1 PM State of the Science: Visions for the Future
Monday, 14 November 2005: 1:50 PM - 5:30 PM in Ballroom 1

(MAC-1118-072157) Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry in the next 25 years: Some Speculations on Directions and Needs.

Mackay, D.¹, ¹ Trent University, Peterborough, Ontario, Canada

ABSTRACT- As we speculate about trends in the next 25 years perhaps we can obtain some guidance from trends in the last 25 years. The emergence of the science of the bioaccumulation is used as a source of examples, leading to four suggestions, needs and wishes. First, we are clearly on a journey towards expressing processes more mechanistically and quantitatively. This requires continuing, more detailed investigation of the fundamental chemical, physical and biological phenomena, both in the laboratory and in the field, then the translation of this knowledge into mathematical expressions, probably as models. But are bigger and more comprehensive and complex models the answer? I suspect not. We will still be scribbling on the backs of envelopes in 2030. Second, we need to probe more deeply into chemical uptake, distribution, metabolism, excretion and effects in organisms seeking to quantify the "big picture" and taking more account of metabolites, additivity of mixtures and variability in sensitivity. What influences effects and are they really significant? Third, we need to search more systematically for "emerging" contaminants including degradation products. Do we look in chemical manufacturing catalogues in sensing systems or in bird eggs? Finally, if environmental science is to survive and prosper it must serve society by increasing relevance and by reaching out to the public. We should focus more on indoor and urban exposure, global scale processes and especially in the "developing" world that often lacks activist voices and scientific infrastructure. SETAC members need to promote ways of improving our present litigious and wasteful regulatory processes and seek innovative ways to inject more science to ensure high environmental quality for all. A key component is fostering a more open dialogue between SETAC's industry, government and academic constituents.

Key words: model, bioaccumulation, contaminants, regulation