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(173) European workshop on Probabilistic Risk Assessment for pesticides (EUPRA): Preliminary conclusions . Hart, Andy1, 1 ABSTRACT- Current EU procedures for assessing pesticide risks use single values for toxicity and exposure to calculate a single estimate of risk. In reality, many different levels of exposure and toxicity are possible due to variability and uncertainty. Current approaches attempt to deal with this by using 'worst-case' estimates, and by the use of safety or uncertainty factors. When these approaches indicate a potential risk, more realistic estimates are required. This is difficult because it is not known how extreme the worst-case estimates are, and there is no agreed way to calculate less extreme, more realistic estimates. Consequently, there is a lack of consensus on how to proceed. Probabilistic methods may provide a means of overcoming this problem, by quantifying variability and uncertainty. The European Commission is therefore funding a European workshop on Probabilistic Risk Assessment for pesticides (EUPRA) in April 2001. The objectives of EUPRA are to: 1. review the worldwide state of the art in probabilistic methods for analysing the ecological risks of pesticides, 2. identify which aspects of the evaluation of pesticides under EU regulations can be improved by using probabilistic methods, 3. define priorities for further research, data generation and other actions required to develop and implement these improvements. The scope of the workshop includes pesticide risks to both terrestrial and aquatic organisms. This presentation will report the preliminary conclusions of the workshop. Key words: probabilistic, risk, assessment, pesticides |
