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(428) Environmental Exposure Modelling, Release, and Uncertainty - the LRI Programme. Fox, Kay1, Jaworska, Joanna2, Thomas, Paul3, Schowanek, Diederik 2, Murray-Smith, Richard4, Feijtel, Tom5, Holt, Martin 6, 1 2 3 4 5 6 ABSTRACT- The CEFIC Long-range Research Initiative funds seven projects which aim to provide better models for predicting environmental release and exposure in the context of EU Risk Assessment of New and Existing substances. There is also a significant focus on the use of uncertainty analysis and the development of improved methods.One project aims to identify and evaluate data sources to improve emission estimation methods. Four further projects aim to improve the ability of the GIS-based GREAT-ER model to predict environmental concentrations. These concern i) the development of a model to predict diffuse run-off from agricultural land, ii) the development of a "virtual estuary" model, based upon a choice of standard estuary types, and incorporating a food web module to investigate biomagnification, iii) the development of an atmospheric deposition deposition model as an input to both the soil run-off and estuary models, and iv) Integration of these models into the GREAT-ER framework, including professionalisation of the GREAT-ER software. Consideration of uncertainty will be an important part of these three projects, and both foodweb and hydrological model verification will be provided for the estuary model. Uncertainty will also be addressed in two further projects. One will provide a "toolbox" of freely available uncertainty analysis tools. The other will investigate uncertainty and parameter sensitivity in multimedia modelling, by comparing a multimedia model for the Baltic with a GIS-based model and with monitoring data. Key words: great-er, environmental exposure assessment, uncertainty, lri |
