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(M/MC278) Greenhouse gas emissions of primary aluminium processing: A partial equilibrium analysis. Poganietz, Witold1, Zapp, Petra1, 1 ABSTRACT- Objective of the paper is to analyse the development of selected greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by the process chain of primary aluminium. The analysis bases on a partial equilibrium model (PEM). LCA focuses on environmental consequences of a product as they are determined by used technology. MFA or SFA include economic relations between production facilities, as they ground on input-output tables. However, they do not consider the motive of economic behaviour. The latter does influence the amount of emissions. In contrast, in PEM this is recognised. PEM describes the outcome of a set of markets by depicting the behavioural relations that underlie the outcome. It is assumed, that all economic agents maximise their profit or minimise the costs of production. The used model permits an integrated analysis of the technical, geographical, ecological, and economic dimension of the material flow of primary aluminium. The model calculates on the base of minimising the total costs of production, investing and transport a long term market equilibrium in all regional markets and for all goods. Demand for primary aluminium is exogenous given. Demand and production of all goods are separated geographically. The model balances energy use and emissions of GHG of the entire process chain as well as of power generation, production of caustic soda and anodes. Emissions emitted by fossil power plants are assigned to the process chain. Rising world demand for primary aluminium will lead to an upsurge of production of primary aluminium. Whether emissions of CO2, CF4, and C2F6 do either, depend crucially on the growth of production. Technical progress in smelting and energy generation, which both determine the decline of specific emissions, is rather independent from production volume. Key words: greenhouse gas emissions, partial equilibirium analysis, process chain of aluminium |
