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(073) Scenario development in life cycle assessment. Ekvall, T.1, Pesonen, H.2, Rebitzer, G.3, Sonnemann, G.4, Weidema, B.5, 1 2 3 4 5 ABSTRACT- A scenario in a life cycle assessment (LCA) is a description of a possible future situation relevant for specific LCA applications, based on specific assumptions about the future and, where possible and relevant, also including the presentation of the development from the present to the future. Scenarios can be an essential tool for investigating and illustrating the uncertainties in an LCA. They can concern the technosphere, the ecosphere or the valuesphere. A single LCA can include a hierarchy of scenarios within scenarios that concern different parts of different spheres. Each scenario includes a scenario frame, which is developed as part of the goal and scope definition, and relevant parts of the model, which is the result of the entire LCA. We distinguish between cornerstone scenarios and what-if scenarios, depending on the diversity of the scenarios. This, in turn, can depend on the time frame and complexity of the systems involved. We discuss in which way, depending on these factors, extrapolation, dynamic modelling, exploratory methods, participatory methods, normative methods, or a combination of these can be more or less suitable for generating data to the scenarios in an LCA. We also present an elaboration on the prospective methodology for life cycle inventory analysis. Finally, we show examples where the scenario approach has been applied in life cycle impact assessment. Key words: LCA, SETAC working group, scenario, methodology |
