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(52-13) GEMCO - A generic fate model for risk assessment in European estuaries. Baart, Arthur*,1, Barber, M2, Bals, J1, Boon, Johan1, Villars, Nicky1, Van Hattum, Bert3, 1 Delft Hydraulics, Delft, Netherlands, Netherlands2 Civil and Environmental Engineering, Pullman, WA, USA3 Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Amsterdam, Netherlands ABSTRACT- Estuaries provide the link between fresh water rivers and marine systems and as such play a crucial ecological role. This research focuses on the fate of contaminants in estuaries for the purpose of environmental risk assessment. Currently available generic exposure assessment models do not account for the complex hydrodynamical and biological processes in estuarine and marine environments. The research is part of the CEFIC Long-Range Research Initiative (LRI). The objectives are: to improve understanding and forecasting techniques of the fate, distribution and impact of contaminants in estuaries in order to develop and implement a generic modelling tool to be applicable for any 'virtual' European estuary. Data of more than hundred European estuaries has been collected and analysed with help of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Through the use of pattern analysing software (Kohonen networks), European estuaries have been classified into similar behaving clusters of estuaries. The developed 2D risk assessment model (GEMCO) can be run for each of these clusters with either the average (default) properties or can be specified for a specific estuary. The model will be linked to an estuarine food web bioaccumulation model, simultaneously developed in the LRI programme. This paper shows the results from the classification study and shows the application of the model to several examples of real estuaries ( Scheldt, Seine, Thames and others). The results from the GEMCO model are compared to detailed 2/3D modelling studies and measurements of salinity, silt and contaminant concentrations in the estuaries. An assessment of the accuracy and sensitivity of the GEMCO model is presented. Key words: estuary, model, exposure-assessment, chemical-fate |
