|
(20-06) Multiple Model Synchronization and Integration - A Risk Assesment of Surfacewater Perchlorate Contamination. Albers, Eric*,1, Dixon, Ken1, 1 The Institute of Environmental and Human Health, Texas Tech University, Box 41163, Lubbock, Texas, United States of America ABSTRACT- In the past, models have focused on one environmental compartment, a single organism, or a specific process. All of these topics are limited in scope and often fail to take into account the more complex interactions of the real world. We have endeavored to change this practice be combining a predictive environmental transport model with an organismal transport and fate model that has an embedded effects model. Perchlorate ClO4- contamination is an area of growing concern, especially with the phase out of military installations. The Longhorn Army Ammunition Plant (LHAAP) in Karnack, Texas is just such an example. A 6-compartment physiologically based toxicokinetic model (PBTK) for channel catfish (Ictalurus punctatus) was generated to determine contaminant levels in our species of interest. To measure the effects of a given exposure scenario, we embedded a separate model to calculate the inhibition of thyroid hormone secretion within the PBTK model. In order to determine environmental concentrations of perchlorate a time-lapsed surfacewater model was generated accounting for groundwater upwelling. Finally the PBTK model was synced with the surfacewater model to modify exposure concentration based on location in the water body and plume extent for a given time interval. The resulting dynamic model provides a more realistic assessment of risk then the traditional single model approach and should allow for new innovations in the area of risk assessment modeling. Key words: Perchlorate, Modeling, PBTK |
