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(52-09) Scenario-based Risk Assessment: A powerful approach for managing different forms of risks. Plas, Christian*,1, Jaeger-Bergaus, Daniela2, 1 DENKSTATT GmbH, Vienna, Vienna, Austria2 Borealis GmbH, Schwechat-Mannswoerth, Austria ABSTRACT- Recent events have drastically demonstrated that our traditional approaches for assessing risks are insufficient. A wide variety of incidents ranging from the Kaprun accident to the Toulouse explosion, from Baxters filter problems (Slovenia) to Schweizerhalle are available as examples showing that we have not yet been capable to estimate all of the major problems which can arise from our (business) activities. One of the crucial facts is that our respective methods are traditionally based on the evaluation of technical (equipment) risks: broken vessel, damaged gear, etc. Regarding however the appearing problems in real life we have to recognise that they arise mainly from human deficiencies. But how can we find out potential human failures? And how can we estimate eventual resulting problems? In a project for chemical industry (plastic production) a method was developed which enables assessors to identify potentially problematic situations and requires the project team to identify respective scenarios as exactly as possible. These scenarios represent the basis for any further valuation of A: effects, B: frequency and C: probability. It has turned out that the quality of the scenario development is strongly dependent of first the knowledge, open-mindedness and creativity of the participants and second the moderation quality. With this method it becomes possible to evaluate risks with respect of different influence effects, e.g. fauna, residents, workers, injuries, financial value etc. The authors have also shown that relative comparison of risks is possible and thus the method delivers a valuable planning tool for any sort of organisation. The risk assessment results in valued scenarios which are displayed in a so called risk map: An important tool to meet the requirements of responsible managers, of legal regulations (Seveso II) and EU-policy. Key words: risk assessment, risk management, scenarios, risk map |
