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(32-04) Quantifying the invasion probability of genetically modified plants. Damgaard, Christian*,1, 1 DMU, Silkeborg, Denmark ABSTRACT- An operative and quantitative methodology for assessing the ecological risk of a GMP invading a natural habitat is presented. The suggested method evaluates whether dispersal to a specific habitat may take place and calculates the predicted probabilities of establishment, using information on dispersal, Bayesian statistics and mathematical modelling on data from simple competition experiments. Additionally, the method allows evaluation of the probability that a native species goes locally extinct in the invasion process. Key words: genetically modified plants, GMO, invasion probability, risk assessment |
