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PARENT SESSION
21 - Probabilistic Methods in Risk Assessment
8:00 AM to 6:30 PM, Monday, 13 May 2002
Exhibition Area

(21-14) An aquatic environmental modelling system for regional and local scale exposure and water quality assessments.

Pope, Linda*,1, Keller, Virginie2, Young, Andrew2, Fox, Kay3, 1 Environment Agency, Reading, Berkshire, United Kingdom2 Centre For Ecology and Hydrology - Wallingford, Wallingford, Oxfordshire3 Unilever Research, Bebington, Wirral, United Kingdom

ABSTRACT- The GREAT-ER methodology (Geography-referenced Regional Exposure Assessment Tool for European Rivers) was developed for the European Detergent Industry and the Environment Agency for England and Wales to refine methods for regional and local exposure assessment by the incorporation of spatially referenced river and effluent flow data. The methodology was evaluated within experimental catchments in the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy and Belgium. In a subsequent project, the Agency , in collaboration with ERASM and CEH Wallingford, is supporting a United Kingdom implementation of the methodology within a Generic Environmental Modelling System (GEMS), which includes the GREAT-ER simulator and other stochastic water quality models. The implementation of the Water Framework Directive will require the use of linked catchment scale models both for strategic catchment planning and environmental decision making. This system will begin the process of developing a framework that will allow data, scenarios and modelling tools to be used consistently within the Agency. The development of the first phase of the system is complete, and it is being tested at both a regional and catchment scale within four out of the eight administrative regions of the Agency. This application requires the sourcing and management of large quantities of measured and modelled data describing river flows, the impacts of anthropogenic influences on river flows, in-stream water quality, the structure of waste water treatment plants, population served by discharge consents and the monitored quality of effluent data. This paper will describe the GEMS being developed and the approaches being developed for sourcing, quality controlling and filtering the large volumes of environmental data required for model applications at this scale.

Key words: Risk assessment, Water quality, hydrology, Water Framework Directive