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(82-16) Uncertainties and Assumptions in LCA. Saur, Konrad*,1, 1 Five Winds International, Donzdorf, Germany ABSTRACT- LCA studies aim at integrating system assessment as a comprehensive and holistic approach to prevent tradeoffs and guide users and decision makers for better informed decisions. The life cycle approach therefore aims at informing and supporting decision making and management for the improvement of existing products as well as for future generation systems. LCA, like other management techniques as well, has inherent limitations, making choices, assumptions etc. inevitable. Before using the findings of Life Cycle Studies, a consideration of those uncertainties, the effects of choices and assumptions, as well as the inherent data inaccuracies must be examined and understood in more detail. Traditional error and uncertainty analysis failed in practical use due to the specific system modeling, the respective data availability and the typical data collection procedures in Life Cycle Studies. New approaches to identify and understand the system specific uncertainties are necessary for this purpose. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate a methodological approach reflecting the need for the inclusion of uncertainty. By using sensitivity analysis, error assumptions and statistical techniques to determine the influence of value choices, assumption and data inaccuracies, a better informed decision can be achieved. By systematically determining the various influencing factors and by describing their real impact on the overall result, the most significant variable can be identified. This then is an essential input into decision making and the planning of future Life Cycle Studies. This methodological approach is shown exemplarily by a case study. The paper concludes with a recommendation on data collection requirements, an adequate study planning and use of the findings. Key words: Life Cycle Inventory, Uncertainties, Data Quality, Interpretation |
