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(21-08) Spatially explicit risk assessment . Waldhardt, Rainer*,1, 1 Division of Landscape Ecology and Landscape Planning, Giessen, Germany ABSTRACT- The aim of risk assessment is to quantify the effects of stress factors on environmental goods in order to achieve an evaluation of these factors regarding their environmental effects. The effect of a stress factor on an environmental property is generally depending on the size and structure of the reference space and the spatial distribution of the environmental property within this space. For instance, an extensive herbicide application can lead to the temporary loss of a plant species in partial areas of a field, while this effect may not occur on the entire field or in the surroundings. Different rates of possible regeneration processes after cessation of the stress factor have to be considered in relation to the reference space as well. The selection of the reference space is therefore of fundamental importance for the evaluation of the effect of stress factors. A method is presented to quantify the extent of environmental effects by probability calculations, regarding the size and structure of the reference space as well as the spatial distribution of the environmental property. Examples of spatially explicit risk assessment investigating (i) herbicide effects on the genetic diversity of a plant population and (ii) effects of land use change on the plant species richness of a landscape are shown. The method is equally suitable with the work in experimentally created spaces such as micro- and mesocosms, and in complex spaces such as landscapes. Key words: reference space, spatial structure, probability calculation |
