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5F - Probabilistic approaches (MOP/199) Development of a probabilistic model to risk assessment of industrial effluents. Fernández, Carlos1, Carbonell, Gregoria1, Tarazona, José Vicente1, 1 I.N.I.A., Madrid, Madrid, Spain ABSTRACT- The composition of most industrial effluents is complex and vary over time depending on the industrial activity and/or the production process. Thus it is difficult to regulate and control industrial effluents upon a complete chemical characterization of their components. Risk assessment of industrial effluents can be performed using toxicity, bioaccumulation and persistence data generated by Whole Effluent Toxicity Tests on several aquatic trophic levels (algae, invertebrates and fish). All parameters used in this risk assessment are subject to a high variability. For this reason the object of this work is to present a probabilistic model taking into account the distribution curve of each input parameter (river and effluent flow, toxicity, persistence, etc.) The probabilistic model (ERCHITOX-PROB) has been developed on a spreadsheeet (Microsoft Excel) using the Monte Carlo analysis. Hazard Forecasting has been implemented by the Crystal Ball 2000 application (Decisioneering, Inc) based in a Monte Carlo analysis. This application run with Microsoft Excel and permits to combine probabilistic curves with each input parameter, forcasting in the result cells the corresponding probabilistic curves. Several examples applied on the Ebro basin are sohwed. Key words: Probabilistic model, Toxicity, Monte Carlo |
