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7A (1) - Simulation and Modelling (TU9/14) Modelling and simulation to evaluate regional environmental policies for sustainable development. Dixon, Kenneth1, Gerber, Brian1, 1 Texas Tech University, Lubbock, Texas, USA ABSTRACT- Simulation and modeling have played an important role in the science and politics of sustainable development for three decades. These models have taken the form of global models such as World3, WIM (World Integrated Model), IFS (International Futures Simulation), and GLOBUS (Generating Long-Term Options By Using Simulation). These models are largely multi-regional, economic models, with such variables as GDP, employment, inventory, imports, exports, and government expenditures. Another set of models that relate to sustainable development are global climate models that link atmospheric and ocean models. These models have been used to forecast global warming scenarios. We used a different set of integrated models to study sustainable development by focusing on ecosystem stability and the governmental policies and regulations affecting these ecosystems. We modeled land use change, especially urbanization of forest and crop land, water use (crop irrigation, urban and industrial use), and pollution loadings resulting from these factors. The model was applied to the state of Texas, USA, which has high population growth and a decreasing supply of water. The model predicts that changes in several policy areas are needed for sustainable development. Our findings are important because they can shed light on the likelihood of success for a "community-based environmental protection" initiative of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, created in the 1990s to promote local government innovation toward more sustainable communities. Key words: environmental policy, modelling, sustainable development, community-based environmental protection |
