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Probabilistic Risk Assessment - Theory and Reality (MO4/1) Statistical Methods and Approaches in Risk Assessment: Lessons Learned. Warren-Hicks, William 1, 1 The Cadmus Group, Chapel Hill, U.S.A. ABSTRACT- The use of probabilistic methods for the estimation of risk is gaining acceptance in both the United States and Europe. The number of peer-reviewed papers, conferences, workshops, books, and articles on issues associated with risk calculations has grown tremendously. In addition, probabilistic approaches are used throughout the ecological risk community as standard practice in higher tiered assessments. This paper will explore the practical lessons learned from the application of probabilistic methods over the last decade. The paper will explore such issues as: (1) the demonstrated acceptance of probabilistic methods by regulators, (2) the demonstrated effectiveness of probabilistic methods to communicate uncertainty, (3) the demonstrated ability of scientists to use and understand the mathematics underlying probabilistic methods, (4) the demonstrated ability of scientists to clearly communicate the results of a probabilistic analysis, and (5) major lessons learned from the practical application of probabilistic methods, and (6) statistical methods and approaches that have worked well, and others that have not. Key words: risk assessment, probabilistic, statistics |
